adminDistrict Observer a political group,warns that unresolved party disputes, political exclusion and unpopular candidate-selection decisions could undermine the APC’s electoral fortunes ahead of the 2027 general elections.
As political activities gradually gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, the Government of Kogi State and the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) must urgently address internal disagreements and strengthen relationships with aggrieved party members and influential stakeholders.
Having examined the political developments and electoral calculations unfolding across Kogi State, my advice to the government is straightforward: prioritise genuine reconciliation, bring aggrieved party members to the negotiating table, and resolve internal disputes before they become major electoral liabilities.
Political power is sustained not merely by the number of political appointees in government but by public confidence, grassroots support, party unity and the ability of political leaders to manage disagreements with wisdom and maturity.
Kogi State has three senatorial districts—Kogi West, Kogi East and Kogi Central. Beyond the presidential election, no senatorial district should be considered a guaranteed electoral victory for the APC without strategic planning, effective political engagement and the support of the electorate.
A closer examination of the political situation across the three districts reveals concerns that the government and party leadership should not ignore.
1. Kogi West: The Sunday Karimi Question
There are concerns that some political actors associated with the state government and the APC in Kogi West may be exploring political alliances with opposition figures, including members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in ways that could undermine Senator Sunday Karimi’s ambition to return to the Senate.
These concerns deserve serious attention. If such political calculations are indeed taking place, the government must ask an important question: What are the underlying disagreements involving Senator Karimi, and can they be resolved through dialogue rather than political confrontation?
The reported argument that it is Kogi West’s turn to produce the next governor may reflect regional political aspirations, attempts to consolidate support within the district, or disagreements arising from internal party negotiations.
Whatever the circumstances, political disagreements should be examined within their proper context and addressed through constructive engagement.
Political history has repeatedly demonstrated that disagreements that initially appear difficult to resolve can be settled through dialogue, compromise and mutual understanding. There is no reason why the same approach cannot be adopted in Kogi West.
The state government should therefore make a deliberate effort to address the situation before it develops into a wider electoral challenge.
Some supporters of Senator Karimi may interpret attempts to undermine his political ambition as an attack on their collective interests. The political mobilisation witnessed during the attempted recall of former Senator Dino Melaye also demonstrated that political sentiments in Kogi West can be difficult to predict or control through calculations made within government circles.
The lesson is clear: when political leaders fail to reconcile with their supporters, those supporters may eventually express their dissatisfaction through the ballot box.
Furthermore, unresolved grievances in Kogi West could affect not only the senatorial contest but also elections into the House of Representatives.
The government must distinguish between constructive criticism and political hostility. Those who openly identify weaknesses within the party may be motivated by a genuine desire to prevent avoidable electoral setbacks.
A government that listens only to praise risks losing touch with political realities on the ground.
2. Kogi East: A Political Warning the APC Must Not Ignore
Kogi East presents another significant challenge for the APC.
Disagreements surrounding senatorial and House of Representatives contests have the potential to weaken the party’s cohesion, particularly if aggrieved aspirants, influential stakeholders and grassroots supporters feel excluded from important political decisions.
Given the district’s population and electoral significance, the government cannot afford to underestimate the consequences of internal disputes.
The outcome of the last governorship election should remind the APC that political dominance in Kogi East cannot be taken for granted. The party must continue to earn the confidence of voters rather than assume that its existing political structures guarantee electoral success.
The political experience of Senator Isah Jibrin, popularly known as Echocho, deserves particular attention.
Some of his supporters believe that the political calculations surrounding his senatorial ambition disadvantaged him despite what they regard as his loyalty to the party at both state and national levels.
His subsequent disappointment and public statements reportedly preceded disciplinary action against him at the state level, while developments concerning his relationship with the party nationally followed a different course.
The precise circumstances should be assessed on their merits. Nevertheless, the situation illustrates the risks associated with allowing political disagreements to develop into prolonged factional conflicts.
A political party cannot afford to alienate loyal members and still expect them to mobilise enthusiastically for candidates they believe were imposed on them.
There are also concerns among some stakeholders that candidate-selection decisions may not adequately reflect the preferences of party members and the wider electorate.
When party members believe that candidates have been imposed against their wishes, dissatisfaction can grow beneath the surface. Such resentment may eventually affect voter mobilisation, campaign participation and electoral outcomes.
The situation becomes more complicated when communities feel neglected in development, excluded from political decision-making or inadequately represented in government.
Some people in Kogi East have expressed concerns about underdevelopment and what they perceive as insufficient attention from the state government. Whether these perceptions are entirely justified or not, they remain politically significant and deserve a serious response.
Visible development, inclusive governance and meaningful consultation are essential to building public confidence.
The government must not confuse public silence with political satisfaction. Some aggrieved voters may avoid public confrontation but still express their displeasure at the polls.
The APC should therefore urgently address its internal disagreements in Kogi East, reconcile dissatisfied stakeholders and ensure that candidate selection prioritises credibility, competence, electability and the genuine interests of the people.
3. Kogi Central: Managing Two Formidable Political Forces
Kogi Central presents a different but equally delicate political situation.
Two prominent political figures continue to feature prominently in discussions about the district’s political future: former Governor Alhaji Yahaya Bello and Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan.
Former Governor Bello retains a substantial political following among many Ebira people. His supporters credit him with strengthening their political representation and creating opportunities for young people to participate in politics.
Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan, on the other hand, has established a strong political identity of her own. Her supporters point to her electoral victories, her appeal among sections of the electorate and the support she has attracted both within and outside Kogi Central.
Her previous electoral victories, including her defeat of candidates associated with the former governor’s political camp, demonstrated that political influence and control of government appointments do not automatically translate into electoral victory.
The lesson is straightforward: political structures matter, but the people’s votes ultimately determine electoral outcomes.
The state government and influential political leaders must therefore approach the political situation in Kogi Central with considerable wisdom.
Where two influential figures command significant constituencies, the objective should not necessarily be to weaken one political camp to strengthen another. Instead, the government should consider the wider political consequences of its decisions and seek arrangements that preserve party cohesion while respecting democratic choice.
Any decision to support one candidate over another must be assessed in light of its potential implications for the district, the party and the state’s broader political future.
Another possibility that deserves consideration is the political future of Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan.
Should she lose her senatorial seat and subsequently decide to pursue the governorship in 2027, subject to applicable electoral requirements and her own political calculations, the development could significantly alter the political dynamics of Kogi Central.
Such a move could also influence political calculations in Kogi West and Kogi East.
This is not a prediction that any particular outcome is inevitable. It is a political possibility that responsible leaders should consider when making strategic decisions.
The government must also pay attention to aggrieved stakeholders within Kogi Central. Political grievances do not necessarily disappear because those involved are not making public statements.
Where people believe that political arrangements are unfair or that their interests have been sacrificed for narrow calculations, resentment can accumulate and eventually influence electoral behaviour.
The appropriate response is proactive consultation, fairness and reconciliation.
4. The Danger of Political Calculations That Ignore the Electorate
Across the three senatorial districts, one troubling possibility deserves particular attention: political calculations within the corridors of power may take precedence over the wishes and expectations of ordinary party members and voters.
Politics requires negotiation, compromise and strategic alliances. However, these activities become counterproductive when they are pursued at the expense of the people whose votes ultimately determine electoral success.
No political leader, regardless of influence, should assume that the loyalty of supporters is permanent when those supporters feel disregarded.
Similarly, no political party should believe that having numerous political appointees automatically translates into widespread grassroots support.
A person may occupy a government position without commanding a substantial electoral following. Conversely, a political figure without numerous appointees may enjoy considerable grassroots support.
This distinction is essential to understanding the realities of electoral politics.
The APC must therefore examine its political situation honestly and avoid relying exclusively on reports from political associates who may be unwilling to communicate uncomfortable truths.
The government needs candid assessments from stakeholders who understand local political dynamics and are prepared to identify weaknesses before they become electoral liabilities.
The greatest danger to a political party is not always the strength of its opposition. Sometimes, it is the refusal of its own leadership to acknowledge internal weaknesses.
5. Reconciliation Committees Must Deliver Tangible Results
The reported establishment of a reconciliation committee by the state government to engage stakeholders across the senatorial districts is a step in the right direction.
However, the real measure of success is not the number of meetings held, communities visited or political leaders photographed during consultations. It is the extent to which genuine grievances are resolved.
A reconciliation committee should not merely tour the state, receive ceremonial welcomes and submit general reports. It must identify the causes of disagreement, engage principal actors directly and facilitate practical agreements capable of restoring confidence.
To achieve meaningful results, the government should consider the following measures:
First, convene inclusive consultations. Aggrieved party leaders, serving and former lawmakers, aspirants, influential stakeholders and grassroots mobilisers should be invited to frank discussions.
Second, identify the specific causes of disagreement. Political disputes differ from one district to another. The committee should investigate the underlying issues rather than treat every conflict as identical.
Third, encourage compromise and respect due process. Where possible, political differences should be resolved through negotiation while respecting party rules, established procedures and the democratic rights of members.
Fourth, review candidate-selection disputes. The party should promote transparent and credible processes that take account of competence, electability, popular support and the interests of the electorate.
Fifth, address complaints of exclusion and unfair treatment. Party members who believe they have been marginalised should have an opportunity to present their grievances and receive fair consideration.
Sixth, establish clear timelines. Reconciliation efforts should have measurable objectives, deadlines and follow-up mechanisms to ensure that agreements are implemented.
Seventh, promote a culture of constructive criticism. Government officials and party leaders should be encouraged to listen to criticism without automatically interpreting disagreement as disloyalty.
Where practicable, these measures should be implemented before the end of 2026 to give the party sufficient time to rebuild trust ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Reconciliation must be genuine, inclusive and measurable. It should not become a public-relations exercise designed merely to create the appearance of unity.
6. The Silence of Aggrieved Supporters Should Not Be Misinterpreted
One of the most dangerous assumptions in politics is that people who are not publicly protesting are satisfied with the prevailing situation.
That assumption can be costly.
Some aggrieved party members may continue attending meetings, maintaining political relationships and avoiding public confrontations while privately reconsidering their political choices.
Others may withdraw from mobilisation activities or refuse to campaign enthusiastically for candidates they do not support.
Some may simply wait until election day to express their dissatisfaction.
The government must therefore recognise that the absence of public agitation does not necessarily indicate the absence of political resentment.
A dissatisfied political constituency can remain quiet for a considerable period before its grievances become visible through electoral outcomes.
The time to address such grievances is before the election, when dialogue and compromise can still make a difference.
It is far better to reconcile with dissatisfied supporters today than to investigate the reasons for electoral defeat tomorrow.
7. My Final Advice to the Government of Kogi State
My advice to the Government of Kogi State is offered in the spirit of constructive political engagement, not tribal sentiment or personal hostility.
The issues discussed in this article should not be reduced to arguments between ethnic groups, senatorial districts or political personalities. The central concern is the future of Kogi State, the stability of the APC, the credibility of democratic processes and the government’s ability to maintain the confidence of the electorate.
The government should act as the father of the political family by creating an atmosphere in which aggrieved members can speak freely, disagreements can be resolved peacefully and genuine reconciliation can take place.
The governor and other influential political leaders should be prepared to make difficult decisions where necessary. Preserving the collective interest sometimes requires compromise, even when such compromise is personally or politically uncomfortable.
The objective should not be to ensure that every political calculation favours one individual or faction. It should be to create a political environment in which party members feel respected, candidates can compete credibly and the people retain confidence in their leaders.
If the APC wishes to remain competitive across Kogi State, it must begin by resolving internal disagreements, rebuilding relationships with aggrieved stakeholders and demonstrating that the interests of the party and the people are more important than narrow political calculations.
The government still has an opportunity to prevent avoidable divisions from becoming electoral liabilities. It should seize that opportunity now.
If these concerns are ignored and internal grievances are allowed to deepen, the consequences could extend beyond individual senatorial contests to House of Representatives elections and the party’s broader political fortunes.
The electorate may eventually deliver a message through its votes that no amount of political influence can reverse.
My sincere advice, therefore, is simple: let the government bring everyone to the table, listen without prejudice, reconcile without discrimination and move forward with a renewed commitment to unity and democratic fairness.
The future of Kogi State is more important than the ambitions of any individual, faction or political camp.
A united party has a better chance of earning the confidence of the people. A divided party risks surrendering opportunities it could otherwise have secured.
Let wisdom prevail over pride, reconciliation over retaliation, and the collective interest over personal ambition.
That is my advice to the Government of Kogi State.
— District Observer
